Google Scholar. Produce, Protect, Reduce, Restore, Chinas Overseas Investments, Explained in 10 Graphics. .chakra .wef-10kdnp0{margin-top:16px;margin-bottom:16px;line-height:1.388;}What is the World Economic Forum doing to help ensure global food security? Presently, she is studying environmental science and policy at Columbia University as a Shardashish Interschool Fellow and SIPA Environmental Fellow. The GHG emissions that result from producing each kilogram of beefa good proxy for all aspects of productivityare far higher in some countries than in others (Figure 10). Softw. Only a few studies68,69 present detailed information on the shifts in diet, and in most cases the results are not comparable due to differences in the composition of food groups, making wider comparison impossible. 2), we conducted a meta-regression55 on the baseline projections to obtain point estimates for the percentage change in per capita consumption, total food consumption and population at risk of hunger for the period 20102050, taking into account differences between SSPs and RCPs. See the text for a description of Other indicators. In some mitigation analyses, including reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), agricultural productivity gains are barely mentioned, for reasons that are unclear. If the uncertainty related to climate change is also taken into account, the ranges of per capita (1% to +20%) and total food demand (+30% to +62%) projections change slightly. The aim of this paper is to provide a review of recent global food security projection and quantitative scenario studies that provide trends to 2050. There will be nearly 10 billion people on Earth by 2050about 3 billion more mouths to feed than there were in 2010. In the short-term. Food wastage is common across all stages of the food chain. "},"56":{"name":"mosaic restoration","description":"Restoration that integrates trees into mixed-use landscapes, such as agricultural lands and settlements, where trees can support people through improved water quality, increased soil fertility, and other ecosystem services. Extended Data Fig. Environ. EDITOR'S NOTE, 4/15/19: In a previous version of the "Animal-based foods are more resource-intensive than plant-based foods" graphic, "rice" and "roots and tubers" were listed in the incorrect order. Bulk quantity of the harvested produce is lost every year because of the absence of proper postharvest handling and management practices. To avoid these results, productivity gains must be explicitly linked with efforts to protect natural ecosystems from conversion to agriculture. We also modeled more optimistic scenarios to 2050, where, relative to the baseline projection, we assume a 25 percent faster rate in ruminant livestock productivity gains, 20 and 50 percent faster rates of growth in crop yield gains, and a 5 percent additional increase in cropping intensity. Malthus projections were based on a model where population grew geometrically, while food production increased arithmetically. The dark and light grey shaded areas demarcate the plausible range of projections using the 95% confidence interval across all NOCC SSP and all RCP SSP projections, respectively. 2c). 4 and 5). Food production has many sections and it starts with basic things like cleaning, packing, segregating, sorting, preparing, adding ingredients in correct proportions, presenting, etc. To feed the projected 10 billion people by 2050, it is essential to increase and stabilize global food trade and simultaneously align the food demand and supply chains across different geographies and at various scales of space and time. Econ. Such productivity gains reduce both the need for additional land and the emissions from production processes. Econ. Of the 57 studies, 18 (32%) were unpublished at the time of our analysis. Additionally, two billion people are affected by hidden hunger wherein people lack key micronutrients such as iron, zinc, vitamin A and iodine. Williams and Fritschel (2012); Bunderson (2012); Pretty et al. Lancet 393, 447492 (2019). If bioenergy competes with food production by using food or energy crops or dedicated land, it widens the food, land and GHG mitigation gaps. To better interpret the results of our analysis, it is important to discuss a number of limitations. Microdosing crops with small quantities of fertilizer and trapping water on farms through various blocking systems also shows promise in drylands.43. Res. Agroecol. The recent developments underscore the need for quantitative scenario analysis and comparison as a tool to inform policy analysis, coordination and planning for the future of food and wider societal issues. Land-use requirements can be 100 times greater,34and the quantity of feed 20 times greater.35. Dark surfaces absorb the rays from the sun (low albedo).\r\n"},"94":{"name":"biodiversity intactness","description":"The proportion and abundance of a location\u0027s original forest community (number of species and individuals) that remain.\u0026nbsp;\r\n"},"95":{"name":"biodiversity significance","description":"The importance of an area for the persistence of forest-dependent species based on range rarity.\r\n"},"98":{"name":"carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e)","description":"Carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) is a measure used to aggregate emissions from various greenhouse gases (GHGs) on the basis of their 100-year global warming potentials by equating non-CO2 GHGs to the equivalent amount of CO2.\r\n"},"99":{"name":"CO2e","description":"Carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) is a measure used to aggregate emissions from various greenhouse gases (GHGs) on the basis of their 100-year global warming potentials by equating non-CO2 GHGs to the equivalent amount of CO2.\r\n"},"1":{"name":"deforestation","description":"The change from forest to another land cover or land use, such as forest to plantation or forest to urban area.\r\n"},"77":{"name":"deforested","description":"The change from forest to another land cover or land use, such as forest to plantation or forest to urban area.\r\n"},"76":{"name":"degradation","description":"The reduction in a forest\u2019s ability to perform ecosystem services, such as carbon storage and water regulation, due to natural and anthropogenic changes.\r\n"},"75":{"name":"degraded","description":"The reduction in a forest\u2019s ability to perform ecosystem services, such as carbon storage and water regulation, due to natural and anthropogenic changes.\r\n"},"79":{"name":"disturbances","description":"A discrete event that changes the structure of a forest ecosystem.\r\n"},"68":{"name":"disturbed","description":"A discrete event that changes the structure of a forest ecosystem.\r\n"},"65":{"name":"driver of tree cover loss","description":"The direct cause of forest disturbance.\r\n"},"70":{"name":"drivers of loss","description":"The direct cause of forest disturbance.\r\n"},"81":{"name":"drivers of tree cover loss","description":"The direct cause of forest disturbance.\r\n"},"102":{"name":"evapotranspiration","description":"When solar energy hitting a forest converts liquid water into water vapor (carrying energy as latent heat) through evaporation and transpiration.\r\n"},"2":{"name":"forest","description":"Forests include tree cover greater than 30 percent tree canopy density and greater than 5 meters in height as mapped at a 30-meter Landsat pixel scale.\r\n"},"3":{"name":"forest concession","description":"A legal agreement allowing an entity the right to manage a public forest for production purposes.\r\n"},"90":{"name":"forest concessions","description":"A legal agreement allowing an entity the right to manage a public forest for production purposes.\r\n"},"53":{"name":"forest degradation","description":"The reduction in a forest\u2019s ability to perform ecosystem services, such as carbon storage and water regulation, due to natural and anthropogenic changes.\r\n"},"54":{"name":"forest disturbance","description":"A discrete event that changes the structure of a forest ecosystem.\r\n"},"100":{"name":"forest disturbances","description":"A discrete event that changes the structure of a forest ecosystem.\r\n"},"5":{"name":"forest fragmentation","description":"The breaking of large, contiguous forests into smaller pieces, with other land cover types interspersed.\r\n"},"6":{"name":"forest management plan","description":"A plan that documents the stewardship and use of forests and other wooded land to meet environmental, economic, social, and cultural objectives. Environ. The world has made significant progress in reducing hunger in the past 50 years. Get the most important science stories of the day, free in your inbox. Actions to take include selective breeding to improve growth rates of fish, improving feeds and disease control, adoption of water recirculation and other pollution controls, better spatial planning to guide new farms and expansion of marine-based fish farms. CRISPR enables researchers to alter genetic codes cheaply and quickly in precise locations, insert new genes, move existing genes around, and control expression of existing genes. A 20 percent faster increase in crop yields between 2010 and 2050as a result of improvements in crop breeding and soil and water managementcould close the land gap by 16 percent and the GHG mitigation gap by 7 percent. CAS Leclre, D. et al. All data were stored in a database that is available for download. This is usually done by comparing the results of a baseline projection with those of a policy shock projection. This close relationship, however, is also affected by changing and improving diets in developing countries and biofuel production factors that increase the global demand for food and feed. It's well known that food production is one of the most important things we do as a society. R. Soc. For example, using highly sophisticated systems to reduce virtually all forms of pollution from U.S. pig farms would only increase the price of pork by 2 percent while reducing GHGs and creating many health, water and pollution benefits. This course addresses each of these major emissions sources. 1; see Supplementary Section E for the list of studies). Additional details can be found in the review protocol (Supplementary Information). Moreover, in the light of the current coronavirus pandemic, which undoubtedly will have a lasting impact on all aspects of future global development (including food supply and demand), business-as-usual scenarios can no longer be considered plausible or realistic. While Malthus emphasized the importance of land in population-food production dynamics, he understated the role of technology in augmenting total production and family planning in reducing fertility rates. Nat Food 2, 494501 (2021). Mahak Agrawal is a medical candidate turned urban planner, exploring innovative, implementable, impactful solutions for pressing urban-regional challenges in her diverse works. The shared socio-economic pathways: trajectories for human development and global environmental change. There are two main reasons for increasing food consumption: Economic development. According to the most recent assessments, global public agricultural research is roughly $30 billion per year for all purposes, and private crop-breeding research is around $4 billion, which we consider modest. Beef, the most commonly consumed ruminant meat, is resource-intensive to produce, requiring 20 times more land and emitting 20 times more GHGs per gram of edible protein than common plant proteins, such as beans, peas and lentils. 4) To reduces the cost of the food products and increase their availability. J. Glob. Glob. A new scenario framework for climate change research: scenario matrix architecture. Historical data for the selected food security indicators were taken from FAO70. A comparison shows that projections for missing scenario families are positioned within the plausible range of SSP/RCP-based global food security projections and therefore do not affect our results (Supplementary Fig. Approximately one-third of all food produced for human consumption (1.3 billion tons of edible food) is lost and wasted across the entire supply chain every year [ 2 ]. Goal 2: Zero Hunger - United Nations Sustainable Development Why is it important to improve food resources? - Vedantu Natl Acad. When food is wasted, so are the energy, land, and resources that were used to create it. This practice can reduce emissions by up to 90 percent while saving water and increasing rice yields on some farms. Glob. In different capacities, Mahak has worked with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Town and Country Planning Organization-Government of India, Institute of Transport Economics, Oslo. Improvements in crop and livestock productivity already built into the 2050 baseline close most of the land and GHG mitigation gaps that would otherwise exist without any productivity gains after 2010. Anal. Tomlinson, I. Reducing emissions per unit of energy used by 75 percent would reduce the GHG mitigation gap by 8 percent. Dateline Philippines | ANC (29 June 2023) - Facebook Sources to increase the food production in Asia are: 1. Course 2: Increase Food Production without Expanding Agricultural Land Sci. Yet there are nearly 800 million people without access to adequate food. Lotze-Campen, H. et al. In Frontiers of Economics and Globalization 227241 (Emerald Group Publishing, 2015). Ishida, H. et al. Often, the results of these studies vary widely and are difficult to compare because of differences in methods7, assumptions on driving forces8 and definitions of output indicators9. According to the World Food Programme, trade barriers put up by some countries to safeguard national food security in combination with an economic slowdown were expected to double acute hunger by the end of 2020 (ref. CAS This type of restoration is more likely in deforested or degraded forest landscapes with moderate population density (10\u2013100 people per square kilometer). ij is the error for projection j in group i. New advances in molecular biology offer great promise for additional yield gains by making it cheaper and faster to map genetic codes of plants, test for desired DNA traits, purify crop strains, and turn genes on and off. Practically and economically, the prospects for expanding double cropping on rainfed lands must therefore be limited, as is expanding double cropping on irrigated land because of water constraints. Five Causes of Higher Food Prices In the short-term, many factors affect food prices, making them volatile. Additional estimations did not provide support for differences between projections from published and unpublished studies (Supplementary Table 5). Other often-applied models are SIMPLE20, BLS3 and ENVISAGE21. Projections that account for climate change show a somewhat wider range of outcomes (1% to +20% for per capita food demand, +30% to +62% for total food demand and 91% to +30% for population at risk of hunger). Suite 800 Topics Food Food Production The historical data are from FAO70. Gene editing has far greater potential. Elsewhere, governments and aid agencies need to explore new models for regenerating soils. What is the main reason for increasing food production? If sub-Saharan Africa achieved replacement-level fertility rates along with all other regions by 2050, it would close the land gap by one quarter and the GHG mitigation gap by 17 percent while reducing hunger. c,d, Total food consumption baseline projections. Anyone you share the following link with will be able to read this content: Sorry, a shareable link is not currently available for this article. If the confidence band of all SSPs is jointly taken into account, the plausible bandwidth of per capita food consumption becomes +0% to +20% and of total food consumption becomes +35% to +56%. 7). Figure 3 presents two indicators for the future trends in food demand: change in per capita consumption (in kcal per capita per day) and change in total food consumption (in 11015kcal). In addition, there are significant environmental costs in some regions to planting fallow croplands more frequently because some fallow lands are either in very long-term rotations or are in the early stages of abandonment. Food Security Indicators (FAO, 2020); http://www.fao.org/economic/ess/ess-fs/ess-fadata/en/#.XiYStoh7mcw. Actions to take include eliminating biofuel subsidies and not treating bioenergy as carbon-neutral in renewable energy policies and GHG trading programs. Food Security and Climate Change in Africa: A Question of Political Will, 23 Behavior Change Strategies to Get Diners Eating More Plant-Rich Food, How to Manage the Global Land Squeeze? Human demand for crop production is expected to increase substantially in the coming decades as a result of population growth, richer diets and biofuel use. PubMed Glob. A bundle of interventions and stimulus packages are needed at both the supply and demand ends to feed the world in the present as well as the future sustainably, within the planetary boundaries defining a safe operating space for humanity. & Duman, N. How to Feed the Worlds Growing Billions: Understanding FAO World Food Projections and Their Implications (Heinrich Bll Foundation and WWF Deutschland, 2011). PubMed Important strategies include avoiding further loss of carbon from soils by halting conversion of forests, protecting or increasing soil carbon by boosting productivity of grasslands and croplands, increasing agroforestry, and developing innovative strategies for building carbon where soil fertility is critical for food security. Only a very small number of studies indicate that they explicitly address the impacts of aquaculture (n=2)22,23 and urbanization (n=1)23 on global food supply and demand projections. Nonetheless, we think it is reasonable to assume that the core of the models does not change over time and that cross-model comparison is possible. Google Scholar. 170, 166182 (2013). J. Agric. A comparison shows that for all three indicators, almost all No class projections fall within the estimated plausible range of global food security projections (Supplementary Fig. Michiel van Dijk. For the meta-regression (see below), we used only the sample of baseline studies, which used the same or very similar assumptions and therefore could be harmonized and compared. At this pivotal moment, WRI President & CEO Ani Dasgupta will share insights into our predictions for the big stories coming up in 2023, including what actions governments, businesses, institutions and people must take to get the world on the right path. Raising cropping intensity is a promising option, particularly in Latin America, where double cropping has been growing. In several other studies, statistical approaches are used to estimate future food consumption, which is then used as an input into a larger simulation model. 7). Peer review information Nature Food thanks Shinichiro Fujimori, Alan Dangour and Mike Hamm for their contribution to the peer review of this work. Food Sec. The data for 2018 are incomplete as they only include studies that were released in the first half of the year. To account for publication bias, we conducted an extensive search for both academic and grey literature. A meta-analysis of projected global food demand and population at risk of hunger for the period 20102050. Conventional breeding, the selection of best-performing crops based on genetic traits, accounted for around half of historical crop yield gains. Livestock production per hectare varies significantly from country to country and is lowest in the tropics. Res. All data were subsequently cleaned, harmonized and stored in a database (Supplementary Section A). 2b). See Fig. We added random effects for both study and model as we assume that, although comparable, outcomes will vary across both studies and models because of differences in study design and model specifications. Giller et al. For a few studies, additional information was supplied by the authors upon request. Phil. Agric. Proc. & Myers, S. S. Estimated effects of future atmospheric CO2 concentrations on protein intake and the risk of protein deficiency by country and region. In her spare time, Mahak creates sustainable artwork to tell tales of environmental crisis. Google Scholar. Warmer temperatures will extend the growing season in colder countries and regional shifts in rainfall patterns will make some locations wetter.49But some areas will also become drier and hotter. There are several control components that make all of this possible. Many estimates are even larger, and uncertainty should be a cause for greater concern because medium impacts are not more likely.48We modeled one plausible estimate of a 10 percent decline in crop yields due to climate change without adaptation. Second, the information on the drivers of global food security should be interpreted with care. (2006); Branca et al. Meat and Dairy Production - Our World in Data Econ. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish or preparation of the manuscript. The SSPs are generally considered as baseline scenarios. 10). Finally, we investigated potential selection bias related to the No class projections, which were excluded from the analysis because the underlying scenario assumptions were different from the SSP/RCP framework. But, the effectiveness of global food system is undermined by two key challenges: waste and nutrition. Make a list of factors that they should consider for crop improvement. That means handling stress, getting good women's health care, and nurturing yourself. Higher crop and livestock productivity could reduce agricultural land area and greenhouse gas emissions in 2050. Shaping baseline scenarios of economic activity with CGE models: introduction to the special issue. The roads ahead: narratives for shared socioeconomic pathways describing world futures in the 21st century. We combined a number of search strategies to identify relevant studies: (1) we searched five electronic search engines of bibliographic databases (Scopus, Econlit, CAB abstracts, Agricola and Agris) using a combination of search terms; (2) we used Google Scholar, but only including the first two pages with references; (3) we consulted websites of organizations and institutions (for example, FAO, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, the World Bank and the International Food Policy Research Institute), which occasionally prepare global food security assessments; (4) we consulted experts working on the topic to inquire about relevant studies; and (5) we conducted a snowballing exercise on all references from several global food security review studies, as these studies are assumed to bring together important literature. J. Stat. The diamond in the boxplot indicates the mean value and the whiskers indicate the maximum and minimum range of observations. But there are less emissions- and resource-intensive rice production methods. Food Production | U.S. Climate Resilience Toolkit The results of the model were used to derive point estimates and 95% confidence intervals based on standard errors for all SSPRCP combinations for which data are available (Extended Data Figs. Catches need to be reduced today to allow wild fisheries to recover enough just to maintain the 2010 fish-catch level in 2050. This is not a problem by itself, as the mixed model we used for the meta-regression is designed to deal with data that represent a random sample of the total population. For example one needs 240 gallons of water to produce a loaf of bread 46 gallons to produce a soda Incremental crop breeding has been the primary driver of yield gains through assessment and selection of the best performing existing crops, followed by purification, rebreeding, production, and distribution. Figure 3 also compares the results between no climate change (NOCC) and extreme climate change (RCP8.5) scenarios (see Extended Data Fig. To obtain Article Parenting is one of the most complex and challenging jobs you'll face in your lifetime -- but also the most rewarding. WRI research on how to create a sustainable food future has identified 22 solutions that need to be simultaneously applied to close these gaps. Pure SSPs are projections that take their assumptions from the SSPs, where relevant combined with RCP-based climate impact scenarios. Governments must help fund adaptation to those major physical changes that are clearly predictable, such as altering production systems in areas that will be affected by sea level rise. https://doi.org/10.18637/jss.v082.i13 (2017). Small-scale irrigation and water conservation systems will help farmers cope with rainfall variability. We have corrected the graphic, and we regret the error. "Vertical farming practiced on a large scale in urban centers has great potential to: 1. supply enough food in a sustainable fashion to comfortably feed all of humankind for the foreseeable future; 2. allow large tracts of land to revert to the natural landscape restoring ecosystem functions and services; 3. safely and efficiently use the organic portion of human and agricultural waste to . Actions to take include significantly increasing public and private crop-breeding budgets, especially for orphan crops like millet and yam, which are regionally important, but not traded globally. van Vuuren, D. P. et al. Risk of increased food insecurity under stringent global climate change mitigation policy. Washington DC 20002 The main reason is that the FAO trend is estimated using the earlier base year 2005/2007 and therefore overestimates the expected increase in food consumption in comparison with the 2010 base year that is used in our review. Internet Explorer). For example, agroforestry, or incorporating trees on farms and pastures, can help regenerate degraded land and boost yields. {"Glossary":{"51":{"name":"agricultural tree crops","description":"Trees cultivated for their food, cultural, or economic values. Scientific Advances 3. Doubling food production to feed the 9 billion: a critical perspective on a key discourse of food security in the UK. Pardey, P. G., Beddow, J. M., Hurley, T. M., Beatty, T. K. M. & Eidman, V. R. A bounds analysis of world food futures: global agriculture through to 2050. & Weisberg, S. An R Companion to Applied Regression 3rd edn (Sage, 2019). & Weisberg, S. Visualizing fit and lack of fit in complex regression models with predictor effect plots and partial residuals. 3 for a detailed explanation of the figure elements. The value-term measure tends to overestimate food consumption in the case of a diet shift from low-price staples towards higher-value products that might have occurred since 2005/2007. This unmanaged manure accounted for 12 percent of agricultural production emissions in 2010. Agric. Robinson, S. et al. Actions to take include achieving the three forms of social progress that have led all others to voluntarily reduce fertility rates: increasing educational opportunities for girls, expanding access to reproductive health services, and reducing infant and child mortality so that parents do not need to have as many children to ensure survival of their desired number. M.v.D. PubMed Reij et al. Health & Parenting Guide - Your Guide to Raising a Happy - WebMD 5 Population at risk of hunger projections comparing no climate change (NOCC) with RCP projections for 2050. Download the full report, Creating a Sustainable Food Future, authored by Tim Searchinger, Richard Waite, Craig Hanson, Janet Ranganathan, Patrice Dumas and Emily Matthews. Despite difficulties, there are opportunities for progress. A physically-based model of long-term food demand. 1 Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) flow diagram. Interestingly, the latest update of the FAO study2 also presents a projection of 54% for the global change in calories. The vast opportunities created by new technologies warrant large and stable increases in crop-breeding budgets.
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