104109, 2014. The above analysis shows that the optimal emission reduction scenario for the BeijingTianjinHebei construction industry is the energy-saving scenario, and this not only has the earliest peak time and the lowest peak but can also take into account the development of the economic level while saving energy and reducing emissions, and thus is in line with the development goals of the 14th 5-year plan of BeijingTianjinHebei. China Capital Beijing Experiences First Population Decline Since It is impossible to buy a house in Beijing.. In this paper, when studying carbon emissions in the construction industry, only the influence of direct factors of carbon emissions in the construction industry is considered, and the study of indirect carbon emissions of construction materials and whole life cycle carbon emissions in the construction industry is lacking. M. Shang, R. Dong, Y. Fu, and W. Hao, Research on carbon emission driving factors of Chinas provincial construction industry, IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, vol. 140151, 2015. 95, pp. L. Luo and Y. Chen, Carbon emission energy management analysis of LCA-based fabricated building construction, Sustainable Computing: Informatics and Systems, vol. China capital Beijing experiences first population decline since 2003 MY FP: facts. 823834, 2016. As of 2015, the municipality has a population of over 15 million. The pooled funds are then redistributed using a formula that accounts for the number of retirees in each province. Chinas Communist party government is striving to reverse the trend and stave off the economic impacts of an ageing population. 33533367, 2019. Many scholars have studied peak carbon emissions and the timing of carbon peaking in the construction industry. 6, Article ID 1489, 2018. 1012010130, 2021. 88, no. "trigger": "hover", The countrys poor air quality is not exactly news. In 2022, the consumer price inflation (CPI) rate in Beijing municipality in China ranged at 1.8 percent. Energy intensity is the most significant influencing factor in curbing the effect of carbon emissions. D. Kairies-Alvarado, C. Muoz-Sanguinetti, and A. Martnez-Rocamora, Contribution of energy efficiency standards to life-cycle carbon footprint reduction in public buildings in Chile, Energy and Buildings, vol. With the promulgation of the technical standard for near-zero energy buildings in 2019, specifying the future direction of energy conservation in the building industry, carbon emissions will continue to decline and set a decreasing energy intensity of 0.7% every 5 years for the high mode and 0.3% every 5 years for the medium and low modes according to Wangs research [51]. Beijing has a history of about 3,000 years, and it is one of the four ancient cities of China. To study the influence of multiple variables on the environment, in 1994, Dietz established the STIRPAT model based on the IPAT equation, as this is a stochastic analysis model that overcomes the drawback that the constant expression of IPAT cannot change multiple influencing factors at the same time [42]. L.-M. Xue, Z.-X. Gang leaders in the country arent independent warlords. [33] used the STIRPAT model to show that China peaks in 20282014, with 2030 being the optimal peak year, where carbon peaking can be advanced by reducing energy intensity and optimizing the industrial structure. (Required). 3951539527, 2022. 221, pp. 28, no. Covering this many people is an impressive achievementbut the system faces two formidable challenges. From 2007 to 2020, the carbon emissions of the construction industry in BeijingTianjinHebei showed a downward trend, averaging 6.06% per year. Du et al. Chislennost.com In 1950, the population of Tokyo was 11,274,641. The population figures for Beijing are based on the permanent residents of the city, and dont include the large numbers of migrant workers who travel from their home provinces searching for economic opportunity. 6, pp. Cairo has grown by 433,180 in the last year, which represents a 1.99% annual change. In the Study on Population Development Strategy of BeijingTianjinHebei, it is stated that the population of the BeijingTianjinHebei region will peak at 126 In February 2022, the government introduced a national balancing mechanism for the urban pension fund, allowing deficits in certain provinces to be compensated by nationwide surpluses, representing a serious step toward centralizing the whole system. Population of Luxembourg 2023, by age; Number of adults in Bangladesh 2010-2019; Number of adults in Singapore 2012-2021; Gender parity index in tertiary education in Indonesia 2008-2017; an Beijings population has declined for the first time in almost two decades, new population figures have revealed. atcb_action( { 208, no. Lessons from 30 Chinese provinces, Applied Energy, vol. 11, pp. Beijing By 2022, out of the almost 53 million eligible participant firms in China, only 128,000, less than 0.25 percent, had enrolled in the plan. The energy consumption structure mainly consists of four types of energy: coal, diesel, electricity, and gasoline. In 2019, the central government allocated 528.5 billion yuan ($76 billion) to subsidize urban pensions, marking a 9.4 percent year-on-year increase. J. Zhou, B. Jin, S. Du, and P. Zhang, Scenario analysis of carbon emissions of BeijingTianjinHebei, Energies, vol. Chinas Pensions System Is Buckling Under an Aging Population, Click + to receive more stories written by. The numbers show how challenging this situation is. For more than three decades, the government has been trying to shift from the old model of the planned economy, where pensions were paid and guaranteed entirely through state-run enterprises, to one that suits the new economy. Liu LeiXinhua/Getty Images. In this paper, the factors causing the change in carbon emissions from direct energy consumption in the construction industry in BeijingTianjinHebei are decomposed using the logarithmic mean divisia index (LMDI) method to analyze the effect values and contribution rates of each macrofactor. Download the FP mobile app to read anytime, anywhere. Beijings decision to lower the ceiling on the employer contribution rate aimed to reduce business costs, but it has also exacerbated the problem of declining pension fund revenues. AI is already impacting warfare and deterrence, and the immense amount of computing power required to stay ahead of the curve is driving foreign-policy choices for major economies. Then theres the challenge of fragmented administration, run largely through provincial governments. 7082, 2016, In Chinese. But Keyu Jin, the author of The New China Playbook, counters that Beijing could helm the worlds largest economy within the next decadeif it continues its innovative approach to local competition.\nJoin FPs Ravi Agrawal for a timely debate between Beckley and Jin. X. Lai, C. Lu, and J. Liu, A synthesized factor analysis on energy consumption, economy growth, and carbon emission of construction industry in China, Environmental Science and Pollution Research, vol. Moreover, an increase in population will lead to employment in the construction industry. 29, no. Y.-J. In addition, the reason for the growth of carbon emissions is the backward construction technology; most sites are mainly manually operated, resulting in the low economic efficiency of construction enterprises and rough growth in terms of construction energy consumption. "iCalFileName": "how-to-reset-the-u-s-china-relationship", Join in-depth conversations and interact with foreign-policy experts with. Top 5 Environmental Issues in China in 2023. Working-age population in China 1980-2050. Z. Yang, J. Cai, Y. Lu, and B. Zhang, The impact of economic growth, industrial transition, and energy intensity on carbon dioxide emissions in China, Sustainability, vol. "iCal", The construction industry is a critical sector in Chinas energy consumption and a significant source of carbon emissions. Among them, energy intensity and energy structure can suppress carbon emissions in the construction industry, and energy intensity has a continuous significant carbon suppression effect. Promote building energy efficiency technologies and strengthen research on green building technologies and materials. Homelessness in China What happens when the world is no longer unipolar, bipolar, or even multipolar? (5) Analysis of Diesel Consumption Scenarios. Both decomposition methods can be used to analyze the contribution effect of drivers to carbon emissions in the construction industry; for example, Shi et al. WorldAtlas The global construction industry should improve energy efficiency and upgrade the industrial structure to reduce carbon emissions [27]. The cumulative contribution of the economic effect in 20072020 was 222.86104t, with a cumulative contribution of 42.54%. According to media reports, Beijing s population will fall for the first time in 19 years in 2022. The majority of residents live in the urban area, which has seen rapid growth over the last few years. | I agree to abide by FPs comment guidelines. Studies on the construction industry have mainly focused on aspects such as building construction and construction industry relevance [19, 20]. Participation in the plan is projected to expand rapidly, with its total assets reaching nearly 163 billion yuan ($23 billion) by 2025 and a further fivefold increase to 884.9 billion yuan ($124 billion) by 2030. Hatzigeorgiou et al. This approach removes a portion of the young workforce from urban salaried job opportunities, decreasing contributors to the urban basic pension pool. The citys population of permanent residents fell from 21.88 million in 2021 to 21.84 million in 2022, a decline of 84,000. 103, pp. But how can such a plan work when domestic politics on both sides seem in favor of tougher rhetoric and policy? This work was supported by the Provincial Science and Technology Department on the face of the project youth category (grant no. During the sample period, industrial structure, economy, and population positively contributed to carbon emissions in the construction industry during the sample period, where the economy has the most significant contribution to carbon emissions in BeijingTianjinHebei, followed by energy intensity and the minor energy structure. Encourage research on zero-carbon buildings, community technology systems, and critical technologies, support research on zero-carbon building environment and energy consumption post-assessment technology, and develop zero-carbon communities. Beijings population has declined for the first time in 19 years The period 20082012 saw a significant increase, probably due to the implementation of various economic recovery policies in BeijingTianjinHebei after the financial crisis, and economic development drove the construction of various infrastructure and housing buildings. J. Wang, X. Four performance indicators, including mean square error (MSE), root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), were selected to evaluate the prediction model accuracy, and the calculation formula was as follows [48]: Table 4 and Figure 4 visualize the prediction performance of the four models. ", The 2022 edition of Demographia World Urban Areas has been released, which provides revised population estimates based on the 2020 round of censuses, though some censuses have been delayed due to the pandemic (such as in India and Bangladesh). Beijing - statistics & facts | Statista Its losing ground. Encourage research on zero-carbon buildings, community technology systems, and critical technologies, support research on zero-carbon building environment and energy consumption post-assessment technology, and develop zero-carbon communities. Based on the decomposition results and given relevant national policies, five scenarios are set up for each influencing factor, and a regression stochastic impact on population, affluence, and technology (STIRPAT) with ridge regression analysis is applied to each scenario combination for scenario prediction, forming a scientific and reasonable theoretical system to predict the future time of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality in the construction industry of BeijingTianjinHebei. Y. Huang, J. Liu, and M. Shi, Analysis of influencing factors and prediction of carbon emissions of typical urban agglomerations in China: a case study of BeijingTianjinHebei region, Environmental Science and Pollution Research, vol. Post. The IPCCs Fifth Assessment Report states that one-third of the global end-use energy consumption comes from the construction industry, generating 25% of global greenhouse gas emissions [3]. After the formula is complete, you can verify its syntax by clicking the Validate button. 4, pp. By signing up, I agree to the Privacy Policy and Terms of Use and to occasionally receive special offers from Foreign Policy. 85, pp. 25, no. Acquaye and Duffy [7] used the inputoutput approach to develop a carbon emission calculation model for the Irish construction industry. For decades, Chinas one-child policy was brutally enforced, and was lifted only in 2016. "name": "How to Reset the U.S.-China Relationship", However, water shortage and severe water pollution problems in the BeijingTianjinHebei region lead to a maximum reasonable capacity of 110million people, setting its growth rate to a low-growth mode. 2023 "location": "https://foreignpolicy.com/live/how-to-reset-the-u-s-china-relationship/", According to the IPCC in the Special Report on Global 1.5C Temperature Rise, if greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase, the global temperature could rise by 1.5C from 2030 to 2052 [1]. The construction industry is the construction sector referred to in Chinas inputoutput tables, including housing, civil engineering construction, building installation, building decoration, and other construction industries; direct carbon emissions from the construction industry refer to the energy consumed and carbon dioxide emissions released from the construction industrys activities during the design, production construction, and demolition phases. population Overview and forecasts on trending topics, Industry and market insights and forecasts, Key figures and rankings about companies and products, Consumer and brand insights and preferences in various industries, Detailed information about political and social topics, All key figures about countries and regions, Market forecast and expert KPIs for 1000+ markets in 190+ countries & territories, Insights on consumer attitudes and behavior worldwide, Business information on 70m+ public and private companies, Detailed information for 35,000+ online stores and marketplaces. Khannas plan includes reducing trade deficits and tensions, improving communication, and bolstering deterrence.\nBut how can such a plan work when domestic politics on both sides seem in favor of tougher rhetoric and policy? Population of the administrative area of Beijing municipality, China from 1980 to 2022 (in millions) [Graph], Beijing Municipal Bureau of Statistics, March 21, Not all provinces can afford to continuously lower employer contribution rates. 2, pp. Because the carbon emission intensity of energy is the carbon emission coefficient, except for electricity, the carbon emission coefficients of other energy sources are fixed constants, causing the carbon emission intensity effect to change very little, so this factor effect is ignored. Employment in China Beijing (), Pei-ching, or Peking, is the capital city of the People's Republic of China. "label": "Register and Add to Calendar", The future construction volume will continue to increase to meet the demand, leading to increased building energy consumption and a continuous rise in carbon emissions. As long as the labor market fails to improve, pension revenues will struggle to grow enough to keep Chinas social security programs fully funded, increasing the pressure on the government to fill the gap. 403 President Biden and Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India emphasized cooperation between the two countries during a state visit. and over 1Mio. As a result of these problems, Beijing has decisively moved toward central coordination and establishing a national pension system, rather than one run through fragmented provincial governments. It can change and extend some of the influencing factors according to the nature and characteristics of the research object. askQuestionLink || ( askQuestionLink && ! The slow uptake is in part because the high statutory pension contribution rate has overshadowed enterprise annuities. This paper assumes that various energy sources are fully combusted, so COF=100%; is the carbon emission factor. BEIJING, July 4 (Xinhua) -- The World Robot Conference 2023 (WRC 2023) will be held in Beijing from August 16 to 22, However, the IPAT equation, which requires the other two factor variables to remain constant when the one-factor variable is changed, no longer applies to the current complex social environment. E. Akbostanc, G. . Tun, and S. Trt-Ak, Drivers of fuel based carbon dioxide emissions: the case of Turkey, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, vol. Only FP subscribers can submit questions for FP Live interviews. Demographers said the move into negative territory was in line with national trends, demonstrating the economic and social factors underpinning Chinas falling birthrate. Getting an urban hukou isnt just a matter of moving to the city; it requires particular types of high-status work, leaving hundreds of millions of migrant workers still holding rural hukou even when living and working in cities for decades. The increase in urbanization rate and social progress have stimulated a significant increase in the scale of the construction industry, promoting a continuous increase in carbon emissions in this region. Add to Calendar Y. Lu, P. Cui, and D. Li, Carbon emissions and policies in Chinas building and construction industry: evidence from 1994 to 2012, Building and Environment, vol. 395422, 2000. Create an FP account to save articles to read later and in the FP mobile app. The default username below has been generated using the first name and last initial on your FP subscriber account. The population decline was in line with Chinas national trend, as the country saw its first national population decline in six decades last year. Population estimates and projections
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